• ARTICLEOil Can Hit $91 a Barrel in Late 2026 on Iran DisruptionCommodities ARTICLEOil Can Hit $91 a Barrel in Late 2026 on Iran DisruptionCommodities ARTICLE Oil Can Hit $91 a Barrel in Late 2026 on Iran Disruption Commodities January 16, 2026By Yiwen Yin, Oil Markets Analyst, and Tai Liu, Oil Specialist, BloombergNEF January 16, 2026By Yiwen Yin, Oil Markets Analyst, and Tai Liu, Oil Specialist, BloombergNEF January 16, 2026 By Yiwen Yin, Oil Markets Analyst, and Tai Liu, Oil Specialist, BloombergNEF The protests in Iran have heightened the risks of political instability and potential US military intervention. • Any disruption to Iranian crude production or exports - whether from conflict or trade restrictions - could push prices up.BloombergNEF estimates Brent crude to average $55 per barrel in 2026, assuming the situation in Iran does not disturb global oil markets. • However, If Iran’s oil exports were completely removed from the market starting in February, an extreme scenario we currently view as unlikely, Brent could rise to an average of $71/bbl in 2Q 2026. • If the disruption persisted through the rest of 2026, Brent could average $91/bbl in 4Q 2026.Iran is the fifth largest crude oil producer in OPEC+, pumping roughly 3.3 million barrels per day. • Brent crude has exceeded $66 since the protests began, trading at its highest levels since October 2025. • BNEF sees only a modest war premium built into crude oil prices now, at around $4 a barrel.Since the protests in Iran began on December 28, 2025, price signals from the crude oil options market have indicated upside risks to prices.

Article Summaries:

  • Oil prices could surge to $91 a barrel by late 2026 if Iranian crude exports were halted, BloombergNEF (BNEF) warns. The protests that began on 28 Dec 2025 have raised the risk of political instability and U.S. military action, prompting a sharp rise in Brent call‑skew and a modest $4‑barrel war premium. BNEF projects Brent to average $55 bbl in 2026 under normal conditions, but a full removal of Iran’s 3.3 m bpd output could lift the average to $71 in Q2 and $91 in Q4. Although Iran’s share is smaller than Russia’s, a supply glut of 3.2 m bpd is expected, so only a severe disruption-such as a Hormuz blockage-would trigger a sustained deficit.

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