• Has Strategy Defused the Global Game? • Key Insights Strategy posted the fifth-largest quarterly loss in U.S. • corporate history in Q4 2025, and since BTC’s October peak, MSTR has underperformed BTC by 28%. • Strategy’s annual obligations have grown from $645 million to $860 million in five months, driven primarily by STRC’s expanding notional base and its variable dividend rate, which has climbed from 9.00% to 11.25%. • The $2.25 billion USD Reserve buys time but does not change the underlying math for common shareholders.Whether Strategy funds obligations through ATM issuance or reserve drawdowns, both paths lead to mNAV compression. • 100% of Strategy’s $8.2 billion convertible debt is now out of the money, up from 78% in November.

Article Summaries:

  • MicroStrategy reported its largest quarterly loss in U.S. corporate history in Q4 2025, posting a $645 million loss that has since ballooned to $860 million in five months. The company’s Bitcoin holdings have lagged the cryptocurrency’s peak by 28 %, and its $2.25 billion reserve is insufficient to offset rising obligations. Convertible debt-now 100 % out of the money-has increased, and management’s claim that the debt is safe only if Bitcoin stays above $8,000 masks the risk that a price drop would wipe out common and preferred equity. The firm’s strategy now faces significant mNAV compression and shareholder dilution.

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