• Bitcoin’s weekly candle broke 200‑EMA for first time since Oct 2023, ending 882‑day uptrend. • Break signals potential new price lows, as 200‑EMA historically separates expansion from correction. • Past cycles show 200‑EMA breach lasted 14‑30 weeks before recovery, averaging 17‑18 weeks. • Momentum indicators show cooling long‑term investor participation; liveliness peaked in Dec 2025. • Liveliness ratios now below 30‑ and 90‑day averages, hinting at extended accumulation phase. • Analysts warn that re‑entry to 200‑EMA may take months, not weeks, affecting BTC’s recovery timeline.
Article Summaries:
- Bitcoin’s weekly chart has broken a key technical benchmark: the price closed below the 200‑period exponential moving average (EMA) for the first time since October 2023, ending an 882‑day uptrend. Analysts say the EMA may now act as resistance, potentially slowing any rebound. Historical cycles show Bitcoin typically stayed below the 200‑EMA for 8-30 weeks before recovering, averaging 17-18 weeks. Momentum data reveal a decline in entity‑adjusted liveliness after a peak in December 2025, hinting at slower capital rotation. With the realized price near $55,000 and a shifted band around $42,000, the market is watching whether BTC can regain the EMA or remain in a long‑term accumulation zone.
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