• Analysis: China’s CO2 emissions have now been ‘flat or falling’ for 21 months Lauri Myllyvirta 02.12.26Lauri Myllyvirta 12.02.2026 | 12:01amChina’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions fell by 1% in the final quarter of 2025, likely securing a decline of 0.3% for the full year as a whole. • This extends a “flat or falling” trend in China’s CO2 emissions that began in March 2024 and has now lasted for nearly two years. • The new analysis for Carbon Brief shows that, in 2025, emissions from fossil fuels increased by an estimated 0.1%, but this was more than offset by a 7% decline in CO2 from cement. • Other key findings include: - CO2 emissions fell year-on-year in almost all major sectors in 2025, including transport (3%), power (1.5%) and building materials (7%). • - The key exception was the chemicals industry, where emissions grew 12%. • - Solar power output increased by 43% year-on-year, wind by 14% and nuclear 8%, helping push down coal generation by 1.9%.
Article Summaries:
- China’s CO₂ emissions have remained flat or falling for 21 consecutive months, beginning in March 2024, with a 1 % drop in the final quarter of 2025 and an estimated 0.3 % decline for the full year. Fossil‑fuel emissions rose 0.1 % but were offset by a 7 % fall in cement‑related CO₂. Year‑on‑year reductions were seen in transport (‑3 %), power (‑1.5 %) and building materials (‑7 %), while the chemicals sector grew 12 %. Clean‑energy output surged-solar +43 %, wind +14 %, nuclear +8 %-reducing coal generation by 1.9 %. Carbon intensity fell 4.7 % in 2025, yet China still needs a 23 % cut over the next five years to meet Paris commitments, raising questions about policy direction ahead of the 15th Five‑Year Plan.
Sources: