• A valuation of Lighter Key Insights Lighter has emerged as crypto’s second-largest perp DEX,capturing 17% of the perp DEX market by volume in 2025. • Lighter’s core differentiation is zero-fee trading for retail.This gives Lighter a potential cost advantage over existing competitors and a last mover advantage, since future entrants cannot undercut fees that are already zero. • Our valuation forecasts 2028 revenue based on total perp volume growth, DEX share expansion, Lighter’s market share, and take rate dynamics. • Based on those assumptions, Lighter’s base-case fully diluted value is $2.2 billion, roughly in line with its current $1.5 billion FDV.The valuation ranges from $76.8 million in a bear case to $26.1 billion in a bull case. • Post-TGE volume data is still maturing. • We urge market participants to track Lighter’s retention over the next 60-90 days as the most critical input to this valuation.

Article Summaries:

  • Lighter has emerged as crypto’s second-largest perp DEX, capturing 17% of the perp DEX market by volume in 2025. Lighter’s core differentiation is zero-fee trading for retail. This gives Lighter a potential cost advantage over existing competitors and a last mover advantage, since future entrants cannot undercut fees that are already zero. Our valuation forecasts 2028 revenue based on total perp volume growth, DEX share expansion, Lighter’s market share, and take rate dynamics. Based on those assumptions, Lighter’s base-case fully diluted value is $2.2 billion, roughly in line with its current

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