• When the economy grows or shrinks, we often focus on how long the phase lasts or how deep it goes. • A new paper asks a sharper question: How does actual growth compare with steady, quarter-by-quarter growth over the same period? • The authors, Viv Hall (Victoria University of Wellington), John McDermott (Motu Research) and Peter Thomson (Statistics Research Associates), develop three new measures that track the shape of each business cycle phase.
Article Summaries:
- A recent paper by Viv Hall, John McDermott and Peter Thomson introduces three new metrics for assessing business‑cycle performance. Rather than focusing solely on duration or depth, the authors compare actual quarterly growth to a steady, quarter‑on‑quarter growth rate over the same period. The measures capture the shape of each boom or bust phase, offering a sharper view of how economies deviate from a smooth growth path. The study aims to provide policymakers and analysts with a more nuanced tool for evaluating economic fluctuations.
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