• 50% of Bitcoin’s past 24 months ended in gains: Economist Economist Timothy Peterson expects Bitcoin to trade above its current level by December, though some analysts are pushing back on that view. • Cointelegraph in your social feed Half of the months over the past two years have delivered positive returns for Bitcoin, which may be a strong sign that it will be higher than its current price in December, an economist said. • “50% of the past 24 months have been positive. • This implies a 88% chance that Bitcoin will be higher 10 months from now,” economist Timothy Petersonsaidin an X post on Saturday. • In 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) posted gains in January, April, May, June, July, and September, while the other six months ended lower,accordingto CoinGlass. • Peterson explained that he uses the metric to count the number of positive months in any 24-month period to identify possible inflection points.
Article Summaries:
- Economist Timothy Peterson noted that Bitcoin has posted positive returns in 12 of the last 24 months, suggesting an 88 % probability the price will rise within the next ten months. He highlighted that December 2026 could be a strong month, with Polymarket giving it a 17 % chance of being Bitcoin’s best month of 2026, just behind November’s 18 % probability. Historically, November has delivered the highest average return since 2013. Bitcoin is trading roughly 25 % below its year‑beginning level at $68,173. Analysts remain split: some expect a short‑term rebound, while others foresee further downside until late 2026. Market sentiment remains in “Extreme Fear,” though some platforms note a return to neutral territory.
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